On real-estate prices and rental yields

R Jagannathan, in a recent article, predicts an eventual crash or protracted stagnation/decline in real-estate prices in India. What the aforementioned article presents, as an indicator of a “bubble”, is the differential between rental-yields and secured bank lending-rates. Now, I do not know much about the nitty-gritty details of the real-estate market in India and I […]

Debt and Deflation

The primary reason being cited for current global deflationary concerns is the commodity glut and the slowdown in China. These two are related – a China slowdown certainly leads to a fall in demand for commodities and a temporary oversupply. Except that the oversupply seems to be persistent rather than temporary. Everything from energy (crude […]

On Investments, Japan, R&D and Capital Markets

I was listening to one of  Jesper Koll’s talks in which he’s trying to sell Japan to global investors. His arguments, which include the creation of a new middle-class in Japan, an extremely asset-rich and liability-free layer of senior citizens and expertise in high-tech manufacturing, are all very persuasive arguments. But one of his comments struck […]

Comment on the Revised Draft Indian Financial Code

My comments on the draft IFC which I sent to the FSLRC: I appreciate the hard work put in by the Commission to come up with a draft legislation that will aid greatly in enhancing the transparency within the financial system in India. This is a much needed bill and the formation of an MPC […]

Black-Litterman Portfolio Allocation and Bayesian Analysis – Part 1: Introduction

I have thought about doing an introductory post on Bayesian Analysis for a a while now. There were several real-world applications that I considered – finance, machine-learning, election-forecasting etc. Among these, the topic I can deal with most thoroughly, without inadvertently misleading the reader (or myself!), is probably finance. And one of the most accessible areas of […]